Publications

Growing competition from mainland China in the electronics sector require productivity increases and a diversification of the economy in the long-term.

GDP is forecast to grow about 3% in 2017, but high household debt, inequality and low incomes will put downward pressure on consumption growth.

High growth of more than 6% in 2017, but economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses and Vietnamese businesses suffer from limited access to capital.

Gas prices have bottomed out and Atradius expects them to increase over the period up to 2021. Demand will be more moderate, but fueled primarily by China.

Atradius picks the top most promising markets for business opportunities in 2017 due to previous strong performances and expected improvement in 2017.

Developments in the US related to the election of Donald Trump and its expected effect on the US monetary policy path and international trade introduce significant uncertainty for EMEs in 2017.

The demand situation is benign, but food businesses continue to suffer from margin pressure due to high labour and energy costs and stiff competition.

While German food exports continue to increase, domestic market conditions have become increasingly difficult. Overcapacity is an issue in some segments.

Smaller food retailer and wholesalers margins remain under pressure and are expected to lose further market share, while customer behaviour is changing.

The current trend of merger and acquisition towards a subsequent consolidation in the US food market is expected to accelerate in the coming years.

Exports are of major importance for the French food sector (especially for the beverages segment), positively contributing to the French trade balance.

Sector risks have increased after the Brexit decision, and exporters to the UK have already suffered shrinking margins due to currency volatility.

Business failures in the Polish food retail segment have increased in 2016, as mainly smaller players suffer from fierce competition and low margins.

Large food businesses are active globally and performing well, while smaller producers and wholesalers generally face tough competition and low margins.

Gearing of food businesses is generally high, and can be a significant risk for companies with weak profitability and focus on the domestic market.

The outlook for food exports remains positive, with further demand growth from overseas expected, due to the strong reputation of “Made in Italy”.

The economic downturn of two main export markets - Brazil and Angola - has led to reduced exports and, to some extent, investment levels in the sector.

While the industry is still fragmented, consolidation is on-going and companies should gain size and become more competitive domestically and abroad.

Economic growth is expected to pick up in 2017, but uncertainty about the new US administration (potential protectionist trade policies) casts a shadow.

The consequences of any US shift on its Mexico policy remain to be seen, but increased currency volatility has already an negative impact on the economy.