Publications

The turbulent waters that the global economy faced at the beginning of the year have calmed but the underlying issues persist.

The economy in Eastern Europe is forecast to continue growing 1.1% this year. However, trade credit risk from foreign late payment is on the rise.

Respondents in the Czech Republic (46.5%) seem to be most convinced that domestic B2B customers use outstanding invoices for their financial advantage.

Hungarian respondents (76%) seem to be the hardest hit by late payment of domestic invoices due to customers’ insufficient funds (64% in Eastern Europe).

More respondents in Poland (around 30%) than in Eastern Europe (around 20%) are concerned about a worsening of the DSO figure over the next 12 months.

30% of respondents in Slovakia (18% in Eastern Europe) consider maintaining adequate cash flow as the biggest challenge to business profitability in 2016.

Turkey has the highest domestic payment default rate in Eastern Europe, with 61.1% of the total value of domestic B2B invoices paid late (55.2% in 2015).

Atradius explores how rising corporate debt in EMEs affects corporate creditworthiness and identifies the most exposed countries and vulnerable sectors.

In 2015, Austrian business insolvencies decreased by 5%. However, in 2016 the pace of corporate insolvency decrease is expected to slow down to just 2%.

In Belgium, business failures are expected to decline by 7% in 2016. The level of corporate insolvencies will still be higher compared to 2008 levels.

The Danish economy is expected to grow 1.4% in 2016 spurred by improved investment and growing exports. Danish exporters will benefit from rising demand.

French business insolvencies are expected to decrease only about 4% in 2016. The number of insolvencies will still be about 10% higher than in 2008.

In 2015, the German economy grew 1.7%, spurred by household consumption which increased 1.9%. Private consumption remains a key driver of growth in 2016.

The Irish economy registered a strong performance, increasing 5.2% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015. In 2016, growth is expected to slow down but remain robust.

Since 2014, Dutch business failures started to decrease, and are expected to decline further in 2016. However, this figure is still higher than in 2008.

Italy is expected to see only a modest insolvency decrease in 2016 after years of steady increases. This is in line with the modest economic rebound.

In 2016, Spain is expected to see another improvement in business failures (10% decrease), but compared to 2008 levels, insolvencies remain high.

The Swedish economy is forecast to grow 2.9% in 2016. Supported by low interest rates, household consumption and investment are expected to grow.

Swiss business insolvencies increased 7% in 2015 due to a more difficult economic environment. The number of corporate insolvencies remains high in 2016.

In the United Kingdom, consumer spending is still fuelling the economic expansion, helped by a decrease in unemployment and low consumer price inflation.