Publications

Despite rising Swiss exports in 2016, export-oriented businesses production costs had risen relative to their export prices, squeezing profit levels.

In times of increased uncertainty the 7% insolvency decrease expected in 2017 is mainly due to statistical adjustments, but not economic resilience.

2017 is a major election year in Europe. Election gains of populist parties could undermine support for European cooperation and threaten reforms.

The use of credit terms for B2B sales by respondents in Western Europe decreased slightly compared to 2016, stressing the challenging business environment.

There has been a modest increase in the percentage of overdue B2B invoices of Austrian respondents in 2017 (37.4%), compared to one year ago (36.3%).

Despite a strong aversion to granting trade credit to B2B customers, Belgium saw a modest increase in the use of credit- based transactions (31.8%).

The percentages of B2B sales on credit terms in Denmark (56.4%) are, as in previous years, significantly higher than in Western Europe overall (38.8%).

In 2017, 29.3% of B2B sales in France were made on credit, far less than the regional average of 38.9%. This is similar to what was observed last year.

In 2017, the total value of overdue B2B invoices in Germany (40.6%) is in line with the regional average (41.0%) and almost at the 2016 level (40.0%).

Compared to one year ago (31.5%), Greece has seen an increase of almost seven percentage points in the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in 2017 (38.6%).

After Denmark (56.4%) and Greece (52.1%), Ireland has the highest average of sales made on credit terms (48.2%) in the Western European countries surveyed.

Despite a decrease in 2017, the average value of B2B sales on credit in Italy (42.5%) is still higher than that registered in Western Europe (38.8%).

After a sharp increase in sales on credit terms in 2016 (55.8%), the total value of B2B sales on credit in Sweden decreased again this year (47.8%).

Among the Western European countries surveyed, respondents in Switzerland reported late payments most frequently (domestic: 97.0%; foreign: 93.9%).

After a slight decrease in sales on credit terms in 2016 (44.3%), the total value of B2B sales on credit in Great Britain increased again this year (45.7%).

Compared to the 2016 survey results there has been a reduction in the percentage of both domestic and foreign B2B sales made on credit in the Netherlands.

Compared to 2016, respondents in Spain sold less on credit terms, underlining the downward trend in sales on credit terms observed in previous surveys.

Payment behaviour of many Turkish businesses has deteriorated since 2015, and key sectors continue to face problems in 2017 due to increased uncertainty.

The current economic rebalancing efforts do not yet really support consumer durables retailing, as the saving rate of Chinese consumers remains high.

Further sales growth in 2017 is uncertain as consumer confidence could be affected by the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Competition is high in all segments and price pressure offsets sales volume growth, meaning that the already low profit margins will remain under pressure.

2017 is expected to be challenging as the weaker pound is putting upward pressure on prices and growing uncertainty could affect consumer spending.

The 2017 retail sales outlook remains positive, due to robust private consumption driven by an improved housing market, job growth and higher wages.

Sales are expected to grow further in 2017, but smaller businesses are struggling to cope with the fast growing market leaders and online retailers.

Given the positive economic outlook for 2017 with household consumption forecast to increase above 3% , robust consumer durables sales growth is expected.

In 2016 non-food retail sales increased 6.8%, benefitting from robust private consumption growth fuelled by low inflation and increasing employment.

Small- and medium-sized retailers generally operate on low margins and are impacted by multiple sourcing agreements, competition and price volatility.

Indonesia's retail sector remains one of the most promising in Asia due to the large population and growing middle class with higher purchasing power.

Weaker players have disappeared while other businesses chose to merge with other peers in order to survive, and the concentration process will continue.

Payments in the sector range from 60 to 90 days; however, they can extend to more than 120 days depending on the market power of individual retailers.

The risk of a downturn in the domestic real estate market could dampen higher growth prospects in the furniture and domestic appliances segments in 2017.

While the return to more market friendly policies has improved medium- and long-term growth prospects, the short-term outlook remains challenging.

While in 2017 a modest economic rebound after two years of contraction is expected, Brazilian business insolvencies will continue to increase by about 10%.

Growth has slowed down due to the end of the commodity boom and weaker doemstic demand, but the business environment remains one of the best in the region.

Since 2015 GDP growth has slowed due to decreased commodity prices, but the external economic position remains solid and the liquidity position sound.

Against a backdrop of heightened political uncertainty, the Dutch economy is holding firm. A centre-right coalition is the most likely outcome of the elections.

Atradius forecasts insolvencies across advanced markets to fall only 2% in 2017, the weakest performance since 2009.

Despite decreases the level of payment delays and insolvencies will remain high in 2017 as a full-scale rebound is not expected for the time being.

The recovery of the construction sector has finally gained some momentum, but competition remains fierce, and prices and profitability are still low.

Despite continued growth during the last ten years and a benign outlook the level of building activity seen in the 1990s has not been reached again.

The recovery of the Dutch construction sector continued in 2016, but there is still overcapacity in the market, and a consolidation has yet to take place.

Uncertainty in the British construction market is expected to increase in the coming years, especially as a ‘hard Brexit’ seems to be most probable.

Italian building cooperatives and smaller companies focused on domestic residential construction remain highly exposed to the risk of business failure.

Future US construction growth could get an additional boost if, as announced, the new US administration invests heavily in infrastructure improvements.

A modest recovery is forecast in the non-residential segment due to stronger private demand and activity picking up in the infrastructure building sector.

Due to the deterioration in demand competition has increased, as builders operate on lower margins in order to obtain the remaining available business.

Private building projects are expected to decrease due to less benign economic conditions and an increased supply completed housing projects and offices.

Construction payment delays and insolvencies have decreased, mainly because financially weak players already left the market during the past downturn.

Value added construction growth is expected to grow by more than 2.5% in 2017, but due to fierce competition many smaller players have low margins.

After rising in 2016, non-payments are expected to increase further in the coming six months, while business closures are also increasing further.