Publications

In 2016 economic growth will decrease to 3% due to less agriculture output and decreasing exports. In 2017 GDP is expected to rebound again, growing 4.5%.

The economy still has room to absorb the oil price slump, but a long-term period of low oil prices would hurt. Economic diversification is on the agenda.

A moderate economic rebound is expected in 2016 and 2017, given that the domestic security situation will not again hurt tourism and business sentiment.

As the oil price decrease has a negative impact on government revenues and lending conditions, many businesses face liquidity issues and payment delays.

The chemicals sectors in both Germany and France are scoring well and show robust performance. Still, some challenges lie ahead for both countries.

German non-food retailers struggle to cope with the fast growing market leaders, while the rebound for their Italian peers remains modest.

Payment delays remain a major issue in the British construction industry, while in Belgium the payment behaviour of the public sector remains bad.

Atradius identifies the most vulnerable countries and sectors in Europe to Brexit. The impact will be most acute in Ireland, Netherlands, and Belgium.

Despite a rebound in both the Italian and Spanish construction sectors payment duration is still long and insolvencies levels remain elevated.

In the UK chemicals sector there are high barriers to get into a successful team, while the industry shows a solid performance in Slovakia.

In both countries there are star players within the sector, while some segments are weaker, e.g. in German beverage subsector profit margins decrease.

The ball keeps on rolling for machinery in both countries, but difficulties have increased. The level of protracted payments is high in both markets.

Italy´s chemicals sector is finally scoring at home due to a modest economic rebound, while Ireland has all top pharmaceuticals players in the team.

The ICT market in the United States is expected to benefit further from stable economic growth. No further decrease in insolvencies expected in 2016.

The pharmaceuticals sector performs very well in both countries. However, the French pharmacy segment faces some troubles due to decreasing margins.

The IT spending capacity of SMEs in Italy remains subdued. This may be a consequence of still restricted access to bank loans for smaller businesses.

In the UK, many IT resellers continue to lessen their reliance on hardware sales by offering value added services in order to increase their margins.

In 2016, growth in the Japanese ICT sector is expected to be modest at 0.9%, due to market saturation and a low economic growth forecast of 0.6%.

The industry is characterised by sharp price erosion and fierce competition, especially in the wholesalers segment. Market concentration is still on-going.

Currently all Russian electronics / ICT subsectors face major troubles, especially those retailers and wholesalers that trade in foreign currency.

Still a red card: many payment delays, and construction insolvencies in both France and Romania are expected to remain on a very high level in 2016.

A draw in sector comparison, as both the Slovakian and the UK automotive industry show a robust performance. Payment behaviour is generally good.

In both countries the food industry is scoring abroad, as exports have emerged as the main driving force of sales. However, some subsectors face problems.

An uneven match, given that the British ICT industry is doing rather well, while the Russian ICT sector is caught in a downturn, with many insolvencies.

The Spanish chemicals sector shows a strong team performance, while competition is high for Czech chemicals businesses. Producers prices have decreased.

Spain remains a heavyweight in the automotive playing field, while the sector faces troubles in Turkey as domestic demand is expected to decrease further.

In Germany, poor payment behaviour of public buyers is an issue, while in Poland protracted payments are high. Overdue payments up to 30 days are common.

The Belgian machines sector faces some troubles in the construction-related segment. Italian machinery scores abroad, but not yet in the domestic market.

In both countries the food sector is scoring abroad, as exports emerged as the main driving force of sales. But some segments face fierce competition.

The Industry match-up reports analyse the risk situation/outlook in one industry for countries which are paired together in the Euro 2016 tournament.

The turbulent waters that the global economy faced at the beginning of the year have calmed but the underlying issues persist.

The economy in Eastern Europe is forecast to continue growing 1.1% this year. However, trade credit risk from foreign late payment is on the rise.

Respondents in the Czech Republic (46.5%) seem to be most convinced that domestic B2B customers use outstanding invoices for their financial advantage.

Hungarian respondents (76%) seem to be the hardest hit by late payment of domestic invoices due to customers’ insufficient funds (64% in Eastern Europe).

More respondents in Poland (around 30%) than in Eastern Europe (around 20%) are concerned about a worsening of the DSO figure over the next 12 months.

30% of respondents in Slovakia (18% in Eastern Europe) consider maintaining adequate cash flow as the biggest challenge to business profitability in 2016.

Turkey has the highest domestic payment default rate in Eastern Europe, with 61.1% of the total value of domestic B2B invoices paid late (55.2% in 2015).

Atradius explores how rising corporate debt in EMEs affects corporate creditworthiness and identifies the most exposed countries and vulnerable sectors.

In 2015, Austrian business insolvencies decreased by 5%. However, in 2016 the pace of corporate insolvency decrease is expected to slow down to just 2%.

In Belgium, business failures are expected to decline by 7% in 2016. The level of corporate insolvencies will still be higher compared to 2008 levels.

The Danish economy is expected to grow 1.4% in 2016 spurred by improved investment and growing exports. Danish exporters will benefit from rising demand.

French business insolvencies are expected to decrease only about 4% in 2016. The number of insolvencies will still be about 10% higher than in 2008.

In 2015, the German economy grew 1.7%, spurred by household consumption which increased 1.9%. Private consumption remains a key driver of growth in 2016.

The Irish economy registered a strong performance, increasing 5.2% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015. In 2016, growth is expected to slow down but remain robust.

Since 2014, Dutch business failures started to decrease, and are expected to decline further in 2016. However, this figure is still higher than in 2008.

Italy is expected to see only a modest insolvency decrease in 2016 after years of steady increases. This is in line with the modest economic rebound.

In 2016, Spain is expected to see another improvement in business failures (10% decrease), but compared to 2008 levels, insolvencies remain high.

The Swedish economy is forecast to grow 2.9% in 2016. Supported by low interest rates, household consumption and investment are expected to grow.

Swiss business insolvencies increased 7% in 2015 due to a more difficult economic environment. The number of corporate insolvencies remains high in 2016.

In the United Kingdom, consumer spending is still fuelling the economic expansion, helped by a decrease in unemployment and low consumer price inflation.